In a dusty open stall in Mushin, Lagos, trader Mama Ronke eyes her unsold sacks of rice with growing unease.
“It’s cheaper now, but nobody is buying,” she mutters, brushing sweat from her forehead.
The irony is sharp: Nigeria’s most beloved staple is getting more affordable, yet households can barely afford it.
Just months ago, a 50kg bag of rice cost Nigerians up to ₦100,000. Today, in border communities like Idiroko and Seme, that same bag goes for as low as ₦48,000.
In some northern states, prices have dipped to ₦58,000, nearly ₦22,000 less than March’s peak. But in Lagos markets, especially Bariga and Mushin, many traders still sell at ₦75,000 to ₦82,000 due to old stock.
A Price Crash with No Cheers
The decline in rice prices was sparked by a mix of global and regional forces. India’s decision to lift export duties on parboiled rice led to a flood of shipments into West Africa. According to S&P Global, over 2.1 million metric tonnes of rice were exported from India to the region in Q4 2024 alone—a 200% surge from the previous year.
Much of this rice enters Nigeria through the Republic of Benin, legally and otherwise. At border markets, traders like Mohammed Idris from Katsina say they’ve never seen such a steady supply. “Before now, rice would disappear by Ramadan. This year, it stayed,” he tells The Harbinger.
History of Hikes, Burden of the Present
Rice wasn’t always this expensive. In 2015, a 50kg bag sold for about ₦10,000. But by 2016, prices began to climb following Nigeria’s ban on rice importation through land borders. By 2020, a mix of insecurity, flooding, naira devaluation, and the COVID-19 pandemic had pushed prices to ₦30,000. Fast forward to December 2024, and rice peaked at ₦100,000 just in time for Christmas.
Fuel subsidy removal in 2023 compounded transport costs, making food logistics costlier. Many Nigerians either reduced meal portions or stopped buying entirely. As one Abuja-based mother of three told us, “We now eat more yam and beans. Rice has become a Sunday-only food.”
Demand Flatlines Despite Relief
You’d think cheaper rice would trigger a market rebound. But the reverse is the case. Traders are still waiting for buyers, and many say demand has remained worryingly low.
Chuks, a wholesaler at Mile 12 Market, explained the dilemma: “Yes, price is down. But what about our buying power? Families are broke. They’re skipping meals, not celebrating rice’s return.”
S&P Global echoes this sentiment. Their research suggests Nigerians are adopting a wait-and-see approach, unsure if the price drop will last or if it’s another short-term glitch.
The Reality Behind the Numbers
Beyond headlines and price tags lies a bigger story: inflation fatigue. A recent report by Nairametrics showed that an increasing number of Nigerian families now spend over 70% of their monthly income on food. For many, even a ₦20,000 drop in rice price doesn’t change their reality.
Border smuggling is another complicated layer. Over 135,000 bags of smuggled rice—worth nearly ₦1 billion—were seized by the Nigeria Customs Service in early 2025 alone. Yet smuggling remains one of the few ways rice gets to market cheaply.
With the federal government set to roll out the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism (NAPM), aimed at boosting food production and stabilizing prices, traders and consumers alike are watching closely. But trust, like demand, will take time to rebuild.
Waiting for Christmas to Sell
Market watchers say rice demand may rise again by the fourth quarter, as the festive season approaches. But for now, traders like Mama Ronke remain anxious.
“Even if rice drops to ₦30,000, what’s the use if nobody is buying?” she says. Her words speak for many—caught between falling prices and an economy that has left wallets too light to notice.
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